Monthly average temperatures were more than 4 °F above the 1991-2020 normal for almost all of Arizona (red-orange and dark red-orange areas on map). For reference, monthly average temperatures in February 2025 were at least 5 °F above normal for most of the eastern half of Arizona. For the western half of the state, temperatures mostly were 3 to 5 °F above normal.

Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during February 2026 were 66.1 and 40.9 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 68.2 and 38.7 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 67.5 and 38.9 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective February normals are 61.2 and 33.2 °F, 61.6 and 32.9 °F, and 63.1 and 32.7 °F.

Temperature last month ranged between 83.3 and 27.7 °F at the AZMet Bonita station, 83.5 and 28.9 °F at the AZMet Elgin station, and 84.7 and 28.6 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.

Monthly precipitation totals were less than 50 % of normal for most of the southwestern half of the state (yellow and dark yellow areas on map). Locations in the northwestern half of Arizona recorded totals ranging from 50 % below to near normal (light yellow and white areas on map). Precipitation during February 2025 was less than 25 % of normal for almost all of the southern two-thirds of the state. For the northern one-third, totals mostly were between 25 and 50 % of normal.

Area-average precipitation totals in February 2026 were 0.41 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 0.56 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 0.34 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective February normals are 1.12, 1.43, and 0.93 inches.

Total precipitation last month was 0.22, 0.15, and 0.12 inches at the AZMet Bonita, Elgin, and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.

Dig further into daily weather summaries for the AZMet Bonita and Willcox Bench stations in the Willcox AVA and the AZMet Elgin station in the Sonoita AVA.

Learn more about PRISM climate data.

Temperatures over the course of this month have a moderate increase in chances for being above the 1991-2020 normal across the southwestern corner of Arizona (red-orange area on map). For the rest of the state, there is a slight increase in chances for above-normal temperatures (orange area on map). Monthly average temperatures in March 2025 were near normal for much of the state.

Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during March 2025 were 67.4 and 37.5 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 67.8 and 37.8 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 69.2 and 36.7 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective March normals are 67.1 and 36.9 °F, 68.0 and 37.6 °F, and 69.4 and 37.1 °F.

Temperature in March last year ranged between 86.2 and 27.3 °F at the AZMet Bonita station and between 86.7 and 25.5 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.

Precipitation totals for this month have a slight increase in chances for being below normal across the western one-third of the state (light-tan area on map). For the eastern two-thirds, there are equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal totals (white area on map). Precipitation during March 2025 was less than 75 % of normal for parts of northeastern, southeastern, southwestern, and northwestern corners of the state. In contrast, amounts were 125 to 200 % above normal for an area in north-central Arizona.

Area-average precipitation totals in March 2025 were 0.76 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 1.78 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 0.60 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective March normals are 0.97, 1.31, and 0.76 inches.

Total precipitation in March last year was 0.92 and 0.25 inches at the AZMet Bonita and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.

To stay informed of long-range temperature and precipitation possibilities beyond the coverage of a standard weather forecast, check in, too, with the six-to-ten-day outlook and eight-to-fourteen-day outlook issued daily by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

With well-above-normal temperatures for the Willcox AVA during the months of November, December, and February (January was near to slightly above normal), we’re starting to wonder what the effect might be on when bud break occurs this year. Some bud-break-related variables we’ve looked previously at and that are common in viticulture conversations include chill accumulation, heat accumulation, and soil temperature. Through March 3, 2026, temperature data from the AZMet Willcox Bench station unsurprisingly show heat accumulation, expressed by growing degree hours, and soil temperature at 20-inch depth to be well above average and the warmest since data collection started there in June 2016. Chill accumulation, expressed by chill portions, are well below average and close to the lowest value currently in the station record from 2018.

As impressive as these numbers may be for early March, it’s still too early to say what exactly the impact will be on the timing of bud break this year. Looking at chill and heat accumulation values on past bud-break dates from Buhl Memorial Vineyard, growing degree hours reached about 11,000 with chill portions above 80. With chill portions near 60, corresponding growing degree hours were between 13,000 and 14,000. Those values are for the early varieties, and are greater for later varieties, like Malvasia Bianca. One might be tempted to use daily average values of chill portions and growing degree hours for March – about 0.3 and 200, respectively – and extrapolate out two or three weeks, but temperature so far this dormant season has been anything but average.

Nonetheless, with near-record to record warmth so far this winter and a slight increase in chances for above-average temperatures this month, we can already say that conditions for bud break this year could result in a unique data point as far as timing goes.