Hello, everyone!
This is the December 2025 issue of the Climate Viticulture Newsletter – a quick look at some timely climate topics relevant to wine grape growing in Arizona.
IN THIS ISSUE
- A Recap of November Temperature and Precipitation
- The Outlook for December Temperature and Precipitation
- Timing of Veraison at Buhl Memorial Vineyard
- Extra Notes
A Recap of November Temperature and Precipitation
Monthly average temperatures were 2 to 5 °F above the 1991-2020 normal for most of the southern half of Arizona (orange, dark orange, and red-orange areas on map). For most of the northern half of the state, temperatures were 4 to more than 5 °F above normal (red-orange and dark red-orange areas on map). For reference, monthly-average temperatures in November 2024 were 1 to 4 °F below normal for much of the state.
Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during November 2025 were 70.7 and 42.0 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 69.7 and 42.2 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 72.1 and 40.0 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective December normals are 67.2 and 38.2 °F, 67.5 and 36.6 °F, and 68.6 and 36.7 °F.
Temperature last month ranged between 85.1 and 30.2 °F at the AZMet Bonita station, 83.5 and 31.8 °F at the AZMet Elgin station, and 85.3 and 30.9 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.
Jeremy Weiss
Monthly precipitation totals were more than 200 % of normal for many locations in the western two-thirds of the state (aqua, blue, and dark blue areas on map). In the eastern one-third, amounts ranged from near normal up to 200 % of normal for most locations (white and various green areas on map). Precipitation during November 2024 was less than 25 % of normal for much of the western half of Arizona, and ranged from 25 % of normal to near normal for the eastern half.
Area-average precipitation totals in November 2025 were 0.83 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 3.43 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 0.90 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective December normals are 0.84, 0.83, and 0.73 inches.
Total precipitation last month was 0.92, 0.76, and 0.46 inches at the AZMet Bonita, Elgin, and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.
Dig further into daily weather summaries for the AZMet Bonita and Willcox Bench stations in the Willcox AVA and the AZMet Elgin station in the Sonoita AVA.
Learn more about PRISM climate data.
Jeremy Weiss
The Outlook for December Temperature and Precipitation
Temperatures over the course of this month have a moderate increase in chances for being above the 1991-2020 normal across southeastern Arizona (red-orange area on map). For the rest of the state, there is a slight increase in chances for above-normal temperatures (orange area on map). Monthly average temperatures in December 2024 were more than 5 °F above normal for much of the southeastern, central, and northwestern parts of the state, and mostly 3 to 5 °F above normal elsewhere.
Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during December 2024 were 67.3 and 36.2 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 66.3 and 33.2 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 66.7 and 30.0 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective December normals are 58.3 and 31.5 °F, 57.2 and 30.0 °F, and 59.0 and 30.2 °F.
Temperature in December last year ranged between 75.7 and 23.0 °F at the AZMet Bonita station and between 78.1 and 21.4 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.
Jeremy Weiss
Precipitation totals for this month have equal chances for being below, near, or above normal across all of the state (white area on map). Precipitation during December 2024 was less than 25 % of normal for all of Arizona.
Area-average precipitation totals in December 2024 were 0.00 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 0.00 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 0.00 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective December normals are 1.40, 1.37, and 1.08 inches.
Total precipitation in December last year was 0.00 and 0.00 inches at the AZMet Bonita and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.
To stay informed of long-range temperature and precipitation possibilities beyond the coverage of a standard weather forecast, check in, too, with the six-to-ten-day outlook and eight-to-fourteen-day outlook issued daily by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Jeremy Weiss
Timing of Veraison at Buhl Memorial Vineyard
We return this month one last time to the initial phenology data set we’re analyzing for our current project about the effects of Arizona climate on the timing of wine grape growth stages. Dates for veraison in 2025 are in from Buhl Memorial Vineyard near the AZMet Willcox Bench station and in the south-central Willcox AVA, and we’ve put them and those from the previous two growing seasons into an infographic like the ones we showed for flowering in the July issue and for bud break in the May issue.
Veraison dates in 2025 for about half of the variety blocks occurred earlier than those from 2023 and 2024 (red and gray data points, respectively), an unsurprising result given relatively early bud break dates, near-normal temperatures in April and May, warmer-than-normal temperatures in June, and near-normal temperatures in July this year. Heat accumulation during these months was near average. Despite just these few years of data, some rough patterns appear. Veraison mostly occurs during the second half of July and first week of August, with a few data points appearing earlier during the second week of July or later during the second week of August. Based on dates from individual years for individual variety blocks (gray data points), the overall veraison period for the vineyard is about 23 days on average, with a range from 21 to 26. The order of veraison among variety blocks shows some differences from flowering order with, for example, Sangiovese Grosso moving from an earlier variety to a middle one and Tempranillo from a middle variety to an earlier one; some apparent truth in advertising for the latter.
Varieties and their respective blocks are along the vertical axis of the graph, ordered from top to bottom by increasing average day of year of veraison, that is, from earlier to later. Direction of ordering also appears along the far left of the infographic, as the gray line with arrow end points. Day-of-year averages for each variety and block are the larger black points in the graph, and day of year of veraison for individual years are the smaller semi-transparent points. Day of year for veraison dates in 2025 are the red points. Black lines underlying these points extend from the earliest day of year of veraison to the latest for each variety and block, representing the range of veraison dates. Day-of-year values are along the horizontal axis of the graph. Conversion of these values to corresponding month and day appear as dashed gray vertical lines, with text near the top and bottom of the graph. Day-of-year average values for each variety and block are the left column of numbers at the right of the graph, with corresponding sample sizes in the right column. Variety blocks here correspond to those we saw in similar infographics for flowering and bud break dates.
If you have growth-stage dates for different varieties in your vineyard that you’d like to add to this analysis and the overall project, please let us know.
Jeremy Weiss
Extra Notes
The 2026 Arizona Wine Summit and Arizona Wine Growers Association Annual Meeting will take place January 11-13, 2026, at the Yavapai College Verde Valley campus in Clarkdale. Registration and event details are available here.
Gradually trending oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have the forecast for November-through-January in favor of La Niña conditions, with a 67 % chance and expectations of being short lived. ENSO-neutral conditions are anticipated to return during the January-through-March 2026 period, with chances at 63 %. Notably, chances of El Niño conditions developing and increasing regional odds for winter precipitation remain below 10 % through the March-through-May 2026 period.
Given recent and current conditions, there is a normal potential for significant wildland fires across all of Arizona in December, as based on the outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center.
For those of you in southeastern Arizona, including the Sonoita and Willcox AVAs, Cooperative Extension manages an email listserv in coordination with the Tucson forecast office of the National Weather Service to provide information in the days leading up to agriculturally important events, like cold-air outbreaks and the occasional winter storm. Please contact us if you'd like to sign up.
And for those of you in north-central and northeastern Arizona, including the Verde Valley AVA, Cooperative Extension also now manages an email listserv in coordination with the Flagstaff forecast office of the National Weather Service to provide similar information for this part of the state. Please contact us if you'd like to sign up.
Undergraduate students in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at the University of Arizona are looking for internships with businesses and companies in the viticulture and winery industries. Please contact Danielle Buhrow, Senior Academic Advisor and Graduate Program Coordinator in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, for more information.
Please feel free to give us feedback on this issue of the Climate Viticulture Newsletter, suggestions on what to include more or less often, and ideas for new topics.
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Have a wonderful December!
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