2026 Cost and Return Estimates for Pecan Production in Arizona

• 250-Acre Orchard: Total area 250 acres; 225 acres in production; 25 acres roads, turn-rows, and infrastructure.
• Tree density: 48 trees per acre (30' x 30' spacing with 40' x 40' for larger varieties).
• Pre-productive period: Years 1 through 4 (no commercial harvest).
• Mature orchard analysis: Year 12 and beyond, with assumed yield of 2,000 lbs/acre of clean, dry, in-shell pecans.
• Water source: private well (800-ft. depth, 1,200 gpm capacity; two wells), delivered through a pressurized sprinkler system.

• Pecan price: $2.25 per pound in-shell.
• Tree cost: $35.00 per tree, including planting labor.
• Irrigation water: $110 per acre-foot, delivered via private well pumping.
• Mature orchard water application: 4 acre-feet per acre per year.
• Sprinkler system installed cost: $1,700 per acre.
• Harvest is self-operated with owned equipment (tree shaker, sweeper, and mechanical harvester): $0.13/lb. for harvesting & hauling plus $0.14/lb. for cleaning at the plant ($0.27/lb. combined).
• Capital recovery is calculated at 7% for orchard establishment, machinery, and well/irrigation investments, and at a 5.3% real rate of return for land and buildings.
• Operating overhead and interest on operating capital: 7% of pre-harvest and harvest cash costs.
• General & office overhead: 5% of total growing and harvest costs. General farm maintenance: 2% of total growing and harvest costs. Management services: 6% of total operating costs.
• Harvest threshold: yields under roughly 100 lbs./ acre (Years 1–4) are not commercially harvested.
• Weed management: a bare-ground herbicide program (glyphosate) combined with periodic disking.
• Pruning occurs every two years beginning in Year 4 (mechanical hedging), with brush removal in alternating years.
• Machinery and vehicle costs reflect a 50% adjustment, and well/irrigation costs a 45% adjustment, to represent a typical mix of new and used equipment for the region.

Machinery and equipment are assumed to be adequate for each of the different orchard configurations. All costs related to investment items (orchard establishment, machinery, land, wells, and irrigation) are estimated using the capital recovery method, which annualizes the total investment costs over their useful life at a set interest rate. This approach aims to capture the true economic cost of capital committed to the orchard. This approach follows standard farm management methodology (Kay, Edwards, & Duffy, 2019).

Fertility and zinc program

Nitrogen fertilizer is applied at a rate that scales with orchard age and expected yield, reaching a mature-orchard cost of $224 per acre (see Table 1). Zinc is applied as a foliar spray five times per year in the mature orchard to correct the zinc deficiency common in Arizona pecan soils, at a mature-orchard cost of $126 per acre.

Irrigation

The orchard is served by a pressurized sprinkler system supplied by two private wells (800 ft. depth, 1,200 gpm combined capacity). Irrigation water, including the cost of pumping, is assumed at $110 per acre-foot. A mature orchard is estimated to require 4 acre-feet of applied water per acre per year; water use in younger, pre-productive years is scaled down (see Table 3 in appendix). Annual repair and maintenance costs for the well and sprinkler system are estimated alongside their ownership costs (see Table 5).

Pest and weed management

Insect control targets black and yellow pecan aphids using labeled foliar insecticides, reaching a mature-orchard cost of $105 per acre. Weeds are managed with a bare-ground glyphosate program in the tree row, combined with periodic disking of the row middles; light disking is performed annually and heavy disking every third year. Mature-orchard weed control (herbicide) cost is $150 per acre; light and heavy disking cost $21 and $42 per acre, respectively (heavy disking cost is annualized over its three-year cycle).

Labor, overhead and interest

Interest on operating capital is charged at 7% on cash pre-harvest and harvest costs, calculated to approximate the carrying cost of production loans until harvest revenue is received. General and office overhead (bookkeeping, insurance administration, utilities, and similar business expenses) is estimated at 5% of total growing and harvest costs, and general farm maintenance at 2% of the same base. A management services charge of 6% of total operating costs is included in non-cash ownership costs to represent the value of the owner-operator's or a hired manager's time in making production decisions; any return above total costs is a return to management and risk beyond this allowance

Production, price, and cost risks should not be minimized. While this study makes every effort to model a production system based on typical, real-world practices for Arizona pecan production, it cannot fully represent the financial, agronomic, and market risks that affect the profitability and economic viability of any individual operation. Table 2 presents a sensitivity analysis of net returns across a range of yields and prices around the base assumptions, to help growers gauge how sensitive returns are to conditions that differ from this representative case.

Table 1: Cost and Returns Per Acre - Mature Orchard (Year 12 and Beyond), Arizona 2026

Table 2. Sensitivity analysis - net return per acre at varying yield and price

Table 3. Multi-year cost and return build-up, Years 1–12, Arizona 2026

Table 4. Whole-farm annual machinery and equipment costs, Arizona 2026 (250-acre farm)

Table 5. Whole-farm annual investment costs

Kay, R. D., Edwards, W. M., & Duffy, P. A. (2019). Farm Management (9th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.

Quintero, J. (2026). Arizona Agricultural Enterprise Budgets: Southern Arizona 2026 Field Crops’ Production Budgets. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, az2201

Quintero, J. & Mukherjee, A. (2025a). Arizona Agricultural Enterprise Budgets: Maricopa County’s 2025 Field Crops’ Production Budgets. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, az2167.

Quintero, J. & Mukherjee, A. (2025b). Arizona Agricultural Enterprise Budgets: Pinal County’s 2025 Field Crops’ Production Budgets. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, az2168.