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Hello, everyone!
 
This is the August 2026 issue of the Climate Viticulture Newsletter – a quick look at some timely climate topics relevant to wine grape growing in Arizona.

 

IN THIS ISSUE

 


A Recap of July Temperature and Precipitation

Monthly average temperatures were 1 to 3 °F above the 1991-2020 normal for most of Arizona (light-orange and orange areas on map). Scattered locations across the state recorded near-normal temperatures (white areas on map). For reference, monthly average temperatures in July 2025 were within 2 °F of normal for almost all of the state.

Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during July 2026 were 90.4 and 64.6 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 99.0 and 69.0 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 95.0 and 66.6 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective July normals are 88.5 and 62.8 °F, 98.1 and 66.0 °F, and 93.6 and 64.9 °F.

Temperature last month ranged between 101.8 and 53.2 °F at the AZMet Bonita station, 99.7 and 52.7 °F at the AZMet Elgin station, and 104.7 and 52.9 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.

July 2026 temperature map for Arizona

Jeremy Weiss

 

Monthly precipitation totals were between 150 and 250 % of normal for many parts of north-central and east-central Arizona (aqua, dark-aqua, light-blue, and blue areas on map). Below-normal amounts occurred along the western border and across the southwestern part of the state (various yellow areas on map). Totals were near normal for the rest of the state (white areas on map). Precipitation during July 2025 was less than 75 % of normal for much of the state. Along with parts of southeastern and east-central Arizona, only a few scattered locations recorded near-normal totals.

Area-average precipitation totals in July 2026 were 4.10 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 2.83 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 3.06 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective July normals are 4.06, 1.75, and 2.67 inches.

Total precipitation last month was 1.44, 2.78, and 2.54 inches at the AZMet Bonita, Elgin, and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.

 

Dig further into daily weather summaries for the AZMet Bonita and Willcox Bench stations in the Willcox AVA and the AZMet Elgin station in the Sonoita AVA.

View seasonal summaries of monsoon rainfall through regional maps and weather station statistics.

Learn more about PRISM climate data.

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July 2026 precipitation map for Arizona

Jeremy Weiss

 


The Outlook for August Temperature and Precipitation

Temperatures over the course of this month have a slight increase in chances for being above the 1991-2020 normal across all of Arizona (orange area on map). Monthly average temperatures in August 2025 were 1 to 4 °F above normal for much of the state. Some central and south-central parts of Arizona saw temperatures more than 4 °F above normal.

Area-average maximum and minimum temperatures during August 2025 were 90.8 and 65.1 °F for the Sonoita AVA, 100.4 and 67.5 °F for the Verde Valley AVA, and 95.3 and 66.3 °F for the Willcox AVA. Respective August normals are 86.3 and 61.7 °F, 95.7 and 65.2 °F, and 91.2 and 63.8 °F.

Temperature in August last year ranged between 104.2 and 58.1 °F at the AZMet Bonita station, between 103.6 and 60.6 °F at the AZMet Elgin station, and between 106.3 and 63.0 °F at the AZMet Willcox Bench station.

August 2026 temperature outlook map for Arizona

Jeremy Weiss

 

Precipitation totals for this month have a slight increase in chances for being above normal across all of the state (light-aqua and aqua areas on map). Precipitation during August 2025 was between 25 and 75 % of normal for many parts of the state, with several locations in south-central, northeastern, and northwestern Arizona measuring amounts less than 25 % of normal.

Area-average precipitation totals in August 2025 were 1.76 inches for the Sonoita AVA, 1.54 inches for the Verde Valley AVA, and 1.02 inches for the Willcox AVA. Respective August normals are 3.95, 2.40, and 2.80 inches.

Total precipitation in August last year was 0.44, 0.79, and 2.64 inches at the AZMet Bonita, Elgin, and Willcox Bench stations, respectively.

 

To stay informed of long-range temperature and precipitation possibilities beyond the coverage of a standard weather forecast, check in, too, with the six-to-ten-day outlook and eight-to-fourteen-day outlook issued daily by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

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August 2026 precipitation outlook map for Arizona

Jeremy Weiss

 


Temperature Ranges and the Ripening Period

To help put the ripening period this year in perspective, we return to tracking hours of temperatures below 65 °F and above 95 °F. The reason why is that temperatures affect fruit quality through both early morning minimums and afternoon maximums as fruit ripens. With the former, for example, morning minimums above 65 °F can increase malic acid metabolism and lead to berries with a higher pH. With the latter, afternoon maximums above 95 °F can degrade anthocyanins, particularly in red-berry varieties.

Based on data from the AZMet Willcox Bench station in the Willcox AVA, conditions in July 2026 led to six days with average hourly temperatures over 100 °F (dark red bars on top graph), for a total of 13 hours. The highest average hourly temperature was 103.3 °F on July 31. Temperatures between 95 and 100 °F occurred on 17 days (light red bars on top graph), for a total of 60 hours. In July 2025, for comparison, there were two days and nine hours with average hourly temperatures above 100 °F, and 12 days and 49 hours between 95 and 100 °F (dark and light red bars, respectively, in second-from-top graph). Heat exposure this year appears more concentrated during the earlier and latter parts of the month.

There were six days during July 2026 with average hourly temperatures between 60 and 65 °F (light blue bars on top graph), for a total of 23 hours. Temperatures less than 60 °F (dark blue bars on top graph) occurred on two days, for a total of nine hours. The lowest average hourly temperature was 55.6 °F on July 2 and July 3. During July and August 2025, for comparison, there were eight days and 34 hours with average hourly temperatures between 60 and 65 °F, and two days and three hours less than 60 °F (light and dark blue bars, respectively, in second-from-top graph).

The increase in humidity due to the monsoon during July and August is a typical feature that keeps daily minimum temperatures higher, as less heat radiates away from the surface and into the upper levels of the atmosphere during the night. Based on data from the previous four growing seasons, one might expect little exposure to temperatures below 65 °F for varieties still ripening during August, at least near this location. Some exposure to temperatures over 95 °F, particularly during the first part of the month, might also be anticipated.

 

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graphs of hours within temperature ranges at the AZMet Willcox Bench station

Jeremy Weiss

 


Extra Notes

The Arizona Meteorological Network recently took its real-time data tool for desktop and came up with a mobile-first redesign, AZMet in Real-time: Mobile. It's a progressive web app, so once you open it in a browser, save it to the home screen of your smart phone. Tapping on that icon brings you straight back to the app in its own window and minus the peripheral browser trimmings. Features like single-station reporting, brief summaries of the latest conditions, and sparkline graphs of conditions over the past 12 hours make for a more streamlined presentation of data. In addition, users can select a station of interest from a drop-down list or the nearest one from a geolocation button.
 
Heat index, or "feels like" temperature, is now reported on AZMet in Real-time and AZMet in Real-time: Mobile. Based on air temperature, relative humidity, and the equation used operationally by the National Weather Service, index values reflect conditions in shady locations. In direct sunlight, values can be up to 15 °F greater.
 
THI, or Temperature Humidity Index for heat stress in cattle, is also now reported on AZMet in Real-time and AZMet in Real-time: Mobile. Based on air temperature, relative humidity, and the National Research Council equation, index values reflect conditions in shady locations.
 
The Arizona Meteorological Network also recently improved the user interface for their Chill and Heat accumulation calculators, providing additional contexts in which to view calculated totals.
 
Given recent and current conditions, there is a normal potential for significant wildland fires across all of Arizona in August, as based on the outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center.
 
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to reflect present and strengthening El Niño conditions. Chances for El Niño conditions remaining through the February-through-April 2027 period are at are at 99 %, with a strong El Niño event likely to occur between now and then. Despite the likely “strong” categorization, please keep in mind that this does not ensure that any related anomalies in our winter weather will be similarly characterized.
 
For those of you in southeastern Arizona, including the Sonoita and Willcox AVAs, Cooperative Extension manages an email listserv in coordination with the Tucson forecast office of the National Weather Service to provide information in the days leading up to agriculturally important events, like heat waves and monsoon outbreaks. Please contact us if you'd like to sign up.
 
And for those of you in north-central and northeastern Arizona, including the Verde Valley AVA, Cooperative Extension also now manages an email listserv in coordination with the Flagstaff forecast office of the National Weather Service to provide similar information for this part of the state. Please contact us if you'd like to sign up.
 
Undergraduate students in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at the University of Arizona are looking for internships with businesses and companies in the viticulture and winery industries. Please contact Danielle Buhrow, Senior Academic Advisor and Graduate Program Coordinator in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, for more information.
 
Please feel free to give us feedback on this issue of the Climate Viticulture Newsletter, suggestions on what to include more or less often, and ideas for new topics.
 
Did someone forward you this newsletter? Please contact us to subscribe.
 
Have a wonderful August!

 

With current and past support from:

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Arizona Department of Agriculture logo
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USDA Climate Hubs logo
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CLIMAS logo
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NOAA logo
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USGS logo

 

 

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