May 30, 2021 Cotton Advisories
- An unusual but weak low pressure system will travel across northern Baja this week, resulting in increased humidity and a chance for high elevation thunderstorms in southeast and eastern Arizona through Thursday. Any resulting storms are unlikely to move into the deserts of central Arizona. Elevated humidity levels are not expected to extend into western Arizona where the forecast calls for hot conditions typical of early June. High pressure will settle over all of Arizona by late this week, bringing hot and dry conditions with triple digit high temperatures to most production regions.
- Current forecast for Colorado River flow into Lake Powell, with subpar winter 2021 snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin and dry fall are resulting in low runoff (1.8 MAF vs median = 6.5 MAF. Flow to date = 0.8 MAF vs norm = 3.5 MAF.
- Current projection for levels in Lake Mead from the Bureau of Reclamation (BR) suggests the probability of a Tier 1 shortage at 97% for WY 2022. The probability of a Tier 2 shortage has increased to 44% in WY 2023.
The attachments below are for Cotton Advisories as of May 30, 2021 for different production regions in Arizona: